Trading well-liked reserve players alienates the player for whom they are traded. There was a hint of sadness and disappointment when word leaked out that Matt Vierling and Nick Maton were being traded from a pennant-winning Phillies team.
They served as the bench’s affordable, reliable backup options and were beloved by both the club and the fans. Gregory Soto, who would turn out to be…divisive…in some quarters of that fanbase, was acquired by the Phillies in exchange.
2023 stats: 69 G (nice), 60 1⁄3 IP, 34 R (31 ER), 6 HR, 26.0 K%, 8.8 BB%, 4.62 ERA (2.84 xERA), 0.9 fWAR
The Good
When comparing Soto to Jose Alvarado prior to 2022, there were clear similarities to consider before the season began:
wonderful things unsure of the direction it will go in. The data supported it. While the strikeout rate was in the mid-20s, the walk rate was somewhere in the teens. Men seemed to be on base all the time even though he didn’t give up many hits or home runs. It was concerning that in 2022, despite having a good ERA and save percentage, his strikeout rate actually decreased by nearly 20% compared to the previous year.
It could have been the reason the Phillies were able to acquire him for a reasonable price. Perhaps the Tigers were making the most of their opportunity before things went south and his trade value was zero.
Rather than that, Soto was able to reduce his walk rate, get his strikeout rate back closer to his career averages, and see improvements in his mechanical aspects after joining Caleb Cotham and company. Even though his.265 BABIP was almost a 30-point decline from 2022, he was still aided by some luck as some negative trends were reversing. When dealing with an arm like Soto, that is what you want to happen.
The Bad
The Phillies have four good relievers in Jose Alvarado, Seranthony Dominguez, Jeff Hoffman, and Soto; this is hardly hyperbole.
Among those four, is it accurate to say that Soto is the one with the least amount of trust?
It seemed like Soto was the one who witnessed the wild outbursts from the other three players, even though they lasted longer on the mound. Naturally, this is a subjective opinion given that Soto finished fourth on the team in gmLI with a 1.38 score, but boy, it sure didn’t feel that way.
When Soto was on the mound, it seemed like there was always danger in the air. However, if you compare his actual ERA to his expected ERA, his season didn’t turn out as well as it could have. I can think of a few thousand people who wouldn’t mind seeing that walk rate go down a little bit further, even though Cotham was able to get Soto to lower it in 2023.
The Future
For now, Soto plans to come back in 2024. He is still a left-handed pitcher with a hard thrower’s fastball and a high strikeout rate. They are difficult for teams to let go of. He won’t be able to pursue free agency until 2025, and he shouldn’t demand a salary that would make the team want to let him go.
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