I already know that some of you are going to go crazy over this article. Wins Above Replacement is a helpful metric for summarizing the achievements of an individual player or group of players on a team.
Although WAR is a useful metric for determining a player’s value, not many people are aware of how it’s determined, and the figures used by various websites vary.
For some of the reasons I outlined above, there are those who truly detest it. But we also understand that statistics like OPS, ERA, and batting average alone don’t provide the whole picture. Therefore, I’m sure that everyone will accept it when I say—using Fangraphs’ interpretation of WAR—that the Phillies have the best pitching staff in baseball.
The starting lineup for the Phillies produced 17.7 fWAR last season, which was significantly higher than the Minnesota Twins’ 16.5. The next closest teams were the Mariners (14.4), Rays (15.5), and Padres (14.5). With a fWAR of 6.8, the bullpen placed third overall, behind only the Dodgers (7.6) and Orioles (7.6).
It should come as no surprise that Zack Wheeler led the Phillies with 5.9 fWAR, the highest of any Major League pitcher. The only other pitchers with a five-strike average were Kevin Gausman (5.3), Sonny Gray (5.3), Gerrit Cole (5.2), and Zac Gallen (5.2). With Taijuan Walker (2.5), Ranger Suarez (2.4), and Cristopher Sanchez (1.8) completing the rotation, Aaron Nola came in fifteenth place (3.9).
Because Fangraphs uses Fielding Independent Pitching to calculate WAR totals while B-Ref uses ERA, Nola’s fWAR was significantly higher than his 2.1 WAR as determined by Baseball Reference. Compared to his 3.77 FIP, which eliminates all batted ball luck and only considers strikeouts, walks, and home runs allowed, Nola’s 4.46 ERA was higher.
Therefore, even though Nola’s career-high 1.49 HR/9 allowed in 2023 was clearly the result of being hit by a long ball, his strikeout and walk rates were respectable, if not outstanding. Additionally, it was Nola’s lowest fWAR in a season without a shortening since 2019.
Braves rotation was ranked ninth.
Without having to look, guess who the Phillies’ best bullpen arm was in terms of relievers in 2023?
I’ll be here to wait for you to guess.
Yes, Jeff Hoffman led the team with a fWAR of 1.5. He became the most reliable reliever in the playoffs the previous season for a reason.
With 1.3, Jose Alvarado came in second place, 12 appearances behind Hoffman. Third place went to Craig Kimbrel (1.1), who led the team with 71 games pitched. Matt Strahm (0.9) and Gregory Soto (0.9) completed the top five. Because of his early-season success in the rotation, Strahm also added 1.1 fWAR to his ledger. Seranthony Dominguez was the biggest letdown; despite playing in 57 games, he finished with a fWAR of just 0.1 due to a 3.78 ERA and 4.84 FIP. In 2024, one would think he recovers a little.
Regarding this off-season, what does that mean? First off, all of the starting lineups are returning for 2024. If Wheeler receives the contract extension that everyone thinks he will, this will probably be the lineup for the following two to three years.
Walker’s contract is valid until 2026, Suarez’s is under team control until 2025, and Sanchez’s is valid until 2028. Although it’s unrealistic to expect the rotation to last that long, it’s easy to understand why the Phillies aren’t leading the race to sign Yoshinobu Yamamoto to a $300 million contract or to trade Tyler Glasnow or Corbin Burnes for one of their few elite prospects.
However, the production that Kimbrel brought to the Phillies the previous season needs to be replaced. Yes, Orion Kerkering and Hoffman should play a bigger part. Perhaps Andrew Bellatti or Conor Brogdon resurfaces from the catacombs. It would be prudent to add someone like Robert Stephenson, Jordan Hicks, Hector Neris, or even him (who would need a multi-year deal).
Josh Hader would never do that.
It’s possible that you don’t think fWAR exists, and if so, I can understand. It is only one measure that can be used to try and gauge how good a player is. Although it isn’t perfect, I believe it would be difficult to contest that the Phillies had the best pitching staff in baseball during the previous season.
Nevertheless, it was excellent, and the majority of it will be back in 2024.
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