Sports Update:Raiders quarterback competition: Aidan O’Connell is named “game manager” by DVOA

As previously said, from now until the conclusion of training camp or until one of them is designated the starter, there will be a lot of opinions spoken regarding the quarterback competition between Aidan O’Connell and Gardner Minshew of the Las Vegas Raiders.

It follows that Aaron Schatz of FTN, who forecasts the forthcoming season in Football Almanack 2024, which can be purchased using this hyperlink, weighed in on the battle.

 

 

To give you some background, DVOA (Defensive-adjusted Value Over Average) determines how successful a team is based on the down-and-distance of every play made during the season. It then determines how successful each club is in relation to the league average. In the video below, Schatz explains Defense-adjusted Yards Above Replacement, or DYAR.

 

In particular, the Raiders chapter sheds light on developing prospects and offers some critical analysis of O’Connell’s debut campaign.

 

 

According to the Almanack, O’Connell had a DYAR of 84 and a DVOA of -7.6 percent, which provides context for the ranks above. Therefore, even though it’s encouraging to hear that he was productive enough to ward off concerns that he can’t be a starting quarterback in the NFL, his stats obviously need to rise in year two.

For comparison’s sake, Jimmy Garoppolo had negative numbers in both categories—-16.5 percent DVOA and -64 DYAR—and was below replacement level, which is not surprising given that Las Vegas made a mid-season quarterback move. In contrast, Minshew did better in these two analytical categories last season than his opponent.

The free-agent signing posted a 1.5 percent DVOA and a DYAR of 426 in 2023 with the Indianapolis Colts; 9.1 percentage points and 342 adjusted yards better than O’Connell. Granted, DYAR is a volume stat instead of a rate and Minshew recorded participated in more plays (524 to 366) to account for some of the difference. However, he was still more efficient in the metric with 0.81 DYAR per play compared to O’Connell’s 0.23 DYAR per play.

Despite this, it appears that the Alamanac still favours the Silver and Black’s returning starter over the fresh competitor.

Put another way, barring an unanticipated change in the latter’s play throughout the season, expect the Raiders to be major players in the quarterback market next offseason if the Purdue product is unable to defeat the six-year pro this summer.

That shouldn’t be shocking considering how many people have already predicted that Las Vegas will select a quarterback in either the free agency or NFL Draft. Furthermore, Minshew was only signed by the organisation on a two-year contract, indicating that the front office does not see him as a long-term solution either.