Going into the final week of the regular season, BYU does not control their own destiny to make the Big 12 championship game.
However, the Cougars still have a pretty decent chance to be playing in Arlington on December 7th. Along with beating Houston in the regular season finale, BYU needs at least one of two games to go their way to earn a spot in the Big 12 championship game. Using SP+ game probabilities, we calculated BYU’s chances to make the Big 12 title game.
First and foremost, BYU needs to beat Houston. SP+ gives BYU an 94% chance to beat Houston on Saturday night.
Next BYU needs either Arizona State to lose to Arizona or Iowa State to lose to Kansas State. FPI says Arizona State has a 66% chance to beat Arizona. SP+ says Iowa State has a 49% chance to beat Kansas State. So what are the chances that both Iowa State and Arizona State win? 32.3%.
If you combine the odds of the three games, what are BYU’s chances to make the Big 12 title game? 64%. SP+ believes it’s more likely that BYU will be playing in Arlington than not.
SP+ is more optimistic about BYU’s chances to make the Big 12 title game than FPI. According to FPI, BYU’s chances to make the Big 12 title game are essentially a coin flip. The combined odds of BYU winning and either Iowa State or Arizona State losing are 53% according to FPI.
Potential Opponents
If those things go BYU’s way, who could BYU face in the Big 12 title game? There are three potential opponents that BYU could play in Arlington. Here are the three potential opponents in order of most likely to least likely.
Scenario #1
Iowa State: Loss
Arizona State: Win
BYU: Win
Big 12 championship game: BYU vs Arizona State
If BYU is going to play in the Big 12 championship, the most likely opponent would be Arizona State. After the near comeback against the Sun Devils on Saturday, I’m sure BYU would love a rematch against the Sun Devils.
Scenario #2
Iowa State: Win
Arizona State: Loss
BYU: Win
Big 12 championship game: BYU vs Iowa State
This is the second most likely championship scenario for BYU. If Arizona State loses its rivalry game to Arizona and Iowa State beats Kansas State, BYU would take on Iowa State in the Big 12 championship game.
Scenario #3
Iowa State: Loss
Arizona State: Loss
BYU: Win
Colorado: Win
Of the four teams tied at the top of the Big 12 standings, Colorado has the least probable path to the championship game. Colorado needs two of of Iowa State, Arizona State, and BYU to lose. Colorado’s most likely path to the Big 12 title game is for both Iowa State and Arizona State to lose.
Big 12 championship: BYU vs Colorado
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