This season, the Golden State Warriors have actually had success on the road. They haven’t, however, appeared to be the contender that some had anticipated.
The Warriors are currently in 11th place in the Western Conference with a record of 7-9. Additionally, they have performed marginally worse on both ends of the court than the league average of 113.4 points per 100 possessions.
One problem has been that the Warriors’ early offensive output isn’t nearly as high as that of their rivals. They have been outscored in transition by 8.5 points per game, by far the worst disparity in the league, according to Synergy tracking.
largest disparity, game-by-game transition points, 2023–24
| Own | Opponent | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team | PPG | Rank | PPG | Rank | Diff. |
| Golden State | 13.7 | 30 | 22.2 | 19 | -8.5 |
| Portland | 17.8 | 27 | 23.9 | 27 | -6.2 |
| San Antonio | 20.7 | 18 | 25.4 | 30 | -4.6 |
| Utah | 20.6 | 19 | 24.0 | 29 | -3.4 |
| LA Clippers | 20.0 | 21 | 22.5 | 21 | -2.5 |
The Warriors’ offense has been a lot more of a factor in their decline from the previous season, when they marginally outscored their opponents in transition. In terms of the percentage of possessions that have been in transition, Golden State is last by a significant margin (11.7%), down from 16.6% (16th) in the previous season, according to Synergy.
In general, the Warriors have benefited from the addition of Chris Paul, as they have improved both offensively and defensively when he is on the court. But Jordan Poole and the future Hall of Famer who took his place differ greatly in terms of transition.
At 4.6 points per game and 5.6 points per 36 minutes, Poole led the Warriors in transition points scored in the previous campaign.
Paul has averaged 0.6 transition points every 36 minutes and 0.5 transition points per game this season.
Naturally, Paul is a distributor rather than a scorer. However, Poole’s transition points are not found anywhere else. Indeed, there have been notable declines in the number of transition points per 36 minutes for Andrew Wiggins (from 4.0 to 1.3), Klay Thompson (from 4.8 to 2.5), and Stephen Curry (from 4.9 to 3.4). While Curry has performed admirably in the half-court, Thompson and Wiggins have both posted the lowest effective field goal percentages over the previous ten years.
The Warriors are looking to get the ball up the floor to some extent, as evidenced by their ranking 12th in Second Spectrum tracking (13.9 pass-ahead passes per game), down from 15.0 pass-ahead passes per game (third) last season.
The Warriors are getting fewer efficient shots at the basket as a result of fewer transition opportunities; only 63% of their shots have come from the restricted area or 3-point range, down from 71% last season. They ended a run of 12 straight games in which they were outscored in transition, with a season-high 28 transition points in their loss to Phoenix on Wednesday.
However, in the last 15 minutes, when they were behind by a wide margin, 23 of those 28 points came from the bench.
Though it’s early, the Warriors are among the hardest teams to guard in the half-court, and with experience under their belt, they should be able to work things out in the long run. However, the Warriors will only make matters worse for themselves if they can’t figure out how to run more.
More early offense can result from improved defense, but the Warriors will play without suspended player Draymond Green for one more game this Friday when the Spurs visit them in the In-Season Tournament (10 ET, ESPN). Given that San Antonio allows the fewest transition points per game (25.4), the Warriors may have a chance to take advantage of it.
After that, they’ll have three days off before playing in Tuesday’s tournament final in Sacramento (10 ET, TNT). The Kings have given up the second-fewest transition points per game (17.3) for the second consecutive season.
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