LAS VEGAS: The NFL wagering week began with a mostly quiet first few days, although the Bills, who meet Dallas on Sunday night, saw some movement.
Squares entered the race when Buffalo -1.5 at BetMGM just edged out to -2.5 as experts began to move it.
According to Lamarr Mitchell, director of trading at BetMGM, “the sharps are definitely on the Bills.” Additionally, they upped the OVER wager from 48.5 to 50.5. That is the most-bet game as of yet.
It’s by far the most important matchup we’ve witnessed. It looks like the steamy play. Unbelievably, everyone is placing a wager on that. The activity has been minimal anywhere else.
According to Mitchell, the Cowboys have a 3-to-1 advantage in the number of tickets. Unsurprising, he claims, considering how widely known Dallas and San Francisco are as teams.
“We anticipate Joe Public to be much more active on the Cowboys, and Dallas will likely have a 10-1 ticket count. The Bills are unquestionably the play here, according to the sharps.
The fact that they are betting on the quarterback with the highest interception rate in the league must be accepted. At the top of that table, Josh Allen of the Bills and Sam Howell of the Washington Wizards are tied with 14 picks each.
Additionally, a month or two ago, rumors started to spread regarding Allen’s suggestion to throw a pick. Anyone who has focused on that prop has made money because he has been picked off nine times in a row.
which puts Mitchell in a difficult situation. Given its strength, raising its price would be a sensible commercial decision and natural tendency.
Nonetheless, Mitchell must continue to be competitive in order to attract customers to its eight Strip locations. Throughout the season, word has also gotten out about BetMGM’s excellent prop menu, which includes depth, diversity, and subsequent price.
Allen vs. Dallas over 0.5 interceptions is -140 at a rival; risk $140 to win $100.
Mitchell chuckles, “We’re actually pounding our heads over that specific Allen prop.” “The general population is betting OVER, and our main goal is to maintain the market price. However, the public has gotten there before us.
NFL Week 15 game-by-game sharp money report
Here’s a look at the best games of Week 15, including the latest NFL odds from top-rated sportsbooks, and insights from Mitchell.
Minnesota Vikings (7-6, 7-4-2) at Cincinnati Bengals (7-6, 6-6-1 ATS)
- Saturday, 1 p.m. ET
- Paycor Stadium, Cincinnati, OH
Jake Browning, the Bengals’ 27-year-old rookie quarterback, lost his debut as a starter at home to Pittsburgh, 16-10. Since, he’s 2-0, having gone 50-for-61, with three TDs and an interception, and he’s run two in for scores.
This budged from a BetMGM opener of 3.5 to 4, crossing back over some key terrain to its current spread with Minnesota influence from Wednesday to Thursday.
“The Bengals are a small loser for us, right now,” Mitchell said. “Browning has played like that original five-star high school recruit that he was supposed to be. He’s definitely playing at a supremely high level right now.”
Nick Mullens, 28, gets his first start for the Vikes. He’s 5-12 as an NFL starter, having lost his last one, at home for Cleveland in a 16-14 defeat to Las Vegas in 2021; he went 20-for-30, for 147 yards and a touchdown
More on this game: Vikings vs. Bengals odds, props, predictions
Denver Broncos (7-6, 5-7-1 ATS) at Detroit Lions (9-4, 8-5 ATS)
- Saturday, 8:15 p.m. ET
- Ford Field, Detroit, MI
The tickets are even, but money has come in at a 2-1 clip on Denver.
“Nothing on UNDER,” Mitchell says. “The Broncos’ defense has gotten them back into playoff contention; it isn’t the same defense that gave up 70 points to the Dolphins earlier this year.”
The Broncos have won six of their past seven, yielding an average of 15.6 points to those foes. And they have an astounding takeaway-giveaway ratio of 15-3 in that splendid run. Since ’99, they’re 2-1 in Detroit.
Winning time in Denver?: It could be a good time to start betting Broncos futures
Chicago Bears (5-8, 6-5-2 ATS) at Cleveland Browns (8-5, 7-5-1 ATS)
- Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
- Cleveland Browns Stadium, Cleveland, OH
The Bears have become stingy, having allowed 5.1 yards per pass over their past three games. That’s third in the league, behind the Jets (4.5) and Giants (4.8).
Overall, Chicago has produced a very neutral 0.01 points-per-play margin in that span, while Cleveland sports a third-worst rate of -0.174.
Veteran QB Joe Flacco is 1-1 in two starts for the Browns, throwing for 565 yards but completing less than 60 percent of his attempts, with five TDs and two interceptions.
It’ll be 50 at kickoff, with a 41 percent chance of rain.
Kansas City Chiefs (8-5, 7-6 ATS) at New England Patriots (3-10, 3-10 ATS)
- Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
- Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, MA
Early on, tickets were 4-1, money 2-1, on Kansas City. But bettors took the 10 points, then the 9 and 8.5, slicing it to 8 by Thursday morning.
Mitchell believes squares will pour their money on the Chiefs when they flood into Vegas today and Friday.
More on this game: Chiefs vs. Patriots odds, props, predictions
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-7, 8-5 ATS) at Green Bay Packers (6-7, 7-6 ATS)
- Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
- Lambeau Field, Green Bay, WI
The Packers had won 16 consecutive December games until running into Giants QB Tommy “Cutlets” DeVito on Monday.
A botched 2-point Green Bay run with 93 seconds left gave DeVito the opening and time to maneuver New York downfield for a field goal and 24-22 victory.
The Pack giving 6 to 6.5 on the highway might have been a tall order, Mitchell says. “Too much on the road. This number here, 3.5 at home in Lambeau, is probably right.”
Tampa has won only once in 15 regular-season trips to Lambeau, a 17-16 decision in 2005. However, the Bucs won both of the playoff games they’ve played in Green Bay.
It’ll be 38 degrees at kickoff, heating up to 40.
Dallas Cowboys (10-3, 9-4 ATS) at Buffalo Bills (7-6, 5-8 ATS)
- Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET
- Highmark Stadium, Orchard Park, NY
During the Cowboys’ current five-game winning streak, they have eight takeaways and only three giveaways, and half of those takeaways have been picks.
DaRon Bland, the Cowboys’ second-year defensive back out of Fresno State, leads the NFL with eight interceptions. Bland continuing Allen’s interception streak might be a dream prop.
A temperature in the high 40s is expected at kickoff, with a 40 percent chance of rain increasing in the second half. Dallas has dropped three of its past four in Buffalo, tallying 16 total points in the three defeats.
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Baltimore Ravens (10-3, 8-5 ATS) at Jacksonville Jaguars (8-5, 8-5 ATS)
- Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET
- TIAA Bank Field, Jacksonville, FL
Mitchell was surprised to see Jags QB Trevor Lawrence playing last week, in a 31-27 back-and-forth defeat in Cleveland.
The ankle sprain Lawrence suffered the previous week must not have been too severe. He threw 50 passes against the Browns, for 257 yards, three TDs and three interceptions.
It was the second multi-pick game in five tilts for Lawrence.
Ravens QB Lamar Jackson has had one such outing this season. In his past seven games, he has 11 TD passes and three picks.
It’s expected to be in the high 50s at kickoff, with a 39 percent likelihood of precipitation and steady 17 mph winds.
Philadelphia Eagles (10-3, 7-4-2 ATS) at Seattle Seahawks (6-7, 7-5-1 ATS)
- Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET
- Lumen Field, Seattle, WA
Early money favored the Eagles by a 2-1 count, tickets, 3-1, bumping this spread up from 3.5. At kickoff, it’s expected to be in the high 40s with a 63-percent chance of rain throughout the game.
“I can’t imagine the Eagles having three bad games in a row,” Mitchell says. “And Joe Public has been all over them.”
Seattle has dropped five of its past six, and Drew Lock is expected to get another start filling in for Geno Smith (groin). In losing at San Francisco last weekend, Lock went 22-for-31, for 269 yards, two TDs and two interceptions.
“A contending team losing that many in a row tends to bounce back against teams they have a decidedly big advantage against. Even with it being a cross-country trip for the Eagles, it’s a tough spot for the Seahawks.”
Philly, however, has lost its past seven overall games to the Seahawks. And in the Emerald City, the Eagles have lost their past three by scores of 24-10, 26-15 and 31-14.
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