For the Miami Dolphins running game, the 2023 campaign is still a tale of two extremes.Raheem Mostert is leading the way in what could be one of the best running seasons in franchise history, according to a cursory look at team and individual statistics.
However, a closer look reveals persistent problems with short yardage scenarios, problems the team would be better off fixing now rather than later.
Now let’s analyze the major statistics and what they indicate about the Dolphins running game of 2023.
THE MAGICAL SEASON OF MOSTERT
The Tua-Tyreek connections and spectacular plays have made Mostert a bit of an underappreciated player this season, but that is clearly not the case.
With his two rushing touchdowns in the 28-27 loss to the Tennessee Titans, Mostert tied two important team records: the most total touchdowns in a season (18, shared by Mark Clayton in 1984), and the most rushing touchdowns in a season (16, tied by Ricky Williams in 2002).
With 924 running yards, Mostert is second in the NFL and needs only 76 more to record his first 1,000-yard season. It will be the first Dolphins back to reach 1,000 yards since Jay Ajayi’s 1,272 total in 2016.
Among league leaders, dolphins
courtesy to some clever play-calling and cunning, the Dolphins have remained close to the top of the NFL rushing stats the whole season courtesy to the combination of Mostert and rookie revelation De’Von Achane behind a much-improved but now worn-out offensive line.
With 144.5 running yards per game and 5.26 rushing yards per attempt, the Dolphins are now leading the NFL in both categories. This 5.26 is the largest difference between two slots in the NFL running standings, with Baltimore in second place and you in third.
Of course, the Dolphins’ historic 70-point outburst in the Week 3 home opener against the Denver Broncos and their ability to rush for 350 yards at an 8.1 average played a part, but it’s not like that’s the main reason they’re ranked where they are. If the Dolphins were to play this exercise and lose that game, they would still rank second in the NFL with an average of 4.87 yards per run at the time and eighth with 127.3 rushing yards per game, which is not too bad.
Even with the recent spate of injuries that have limited the Dolphins to starting right tackle Austin Jackson for the entirety of the Tennessee game, the running game has continued to deliver impressive results.
The Dolphins ran for 158 yards on Monday night with a healthy 5.1 average, even behind that patchwork offensive line that lost center Connor Williams on the team’s sixth offensive play of the game.
The Dolphins have outperformed their season average of 149.3 rushing yards in each of their last three games, which include their 30-point victory at Washington in Week 14 and their triumph over the Jets on Black Friday.
And while the Dolphins may have benefited from fatigued defenses in games where the result was inevitable in the second half, as evidenced by their yardage totals against the Jets (167) and Washington (123), their output versus Tennessee was legitimate.
THE SAME RUNNING GAME ISSUES
After going over every positive thing the Dolphins have done in the running game, it’s time to talk about the negative things.
In actuality, there is just one negative aspect, and that is the short-yardage game.
Getting those crucial yards on third- or fourth-and-short plays has been a headache for the Dolphins offense in 2023, regardless of how effective, explosive, or effervescent it has been at other points in the season.
The figures don’t seem good.
The Dolphins’ third-and-1 success percentage (4 of 8) is 50 percent, which ties them with the Raiders for second-worst in the NFL, according to a study project that examined every team’s statistics. With 37.5 percent, only the New York Jets have performed worse.
The strange thing is that, although the Dolphins are only 2-for-8 when they are throwing the ball on third-and-1, their meager success rate is still better than their previous performance.
Quick math shows that the Dolphins are 6-for-16 in third-and-one situations, or 37.5 percent of the time, when you include 4-for-8 and 2-for-8. That sounds awful, and for good reason.
Only the (you guessed it) Jets, who are at 35.7 percent (5-for-14), are worse in the NFL.
Next is the matter of play selection, where Mike McDaniel has occasionally faced criticism for relying too much on passes; naturally, though, there are never grievances when the plays are successful.
However, the idea that the Dolphins are overly reliant on passes is legitimate because, along with the Minnesota Vikings, they have the lowest running percentage in the NFL when it comes to 50% of third-and-1 attempts.
Conversely, the Buffalo Bills execute an NFL-high 94.4 percent of third-and-1 plays, which may or may not be related to their 88.9 percent conversion rate, which is second in the league only to the Tennessee Titans’ 92.3 percent. It might be argued that having a large quarterback such as Josh Allen or a large running back like Derrick Henry can be very beneficial in this situation.
If one were to expand the statistics to include third-and-2, fourth-and-1, and fourth-and-2 situations, the Miami Dolphins actually have the lowest NFL conversion rate (17-for-35) at 48.6, followed by the Atlanta Falcons at 51.4 percent.
In actuality, the main problem there has been the passing game.
In reality, the Dolphins have performed admirably when it comes to rushing the ball on third-and-2 (1-for-1), fourth-and-1 (2-for-3) and fourth-and-2 (1-for-1), but not as well when it comes to the passing game.
Out of the 22 passes the Dolphins have made on third or fourth down with one or two yards remaining, they have only managed to gain a first nine times. Only the New England Patriots (22.2), Arizona Cardinals (30.8), and Atlanta (40) have a worse success rate in the NFL than that of the 40.9 percent.
The takeaway from this is that while the Dolphins have struggled this season in short-yardage scenarios, they have performed worse while throwing the ball, so perhaps it’s time to give the rushing game more of a chance in those circumstances.
Ahead of time for the running game
However, the issue remains if the running game can improve in the latter stages, not just on short-yardage plays but also in close-out scenarios such as the one that Tennessee encountered.
In that instance, the rushing game was unsuccessful as Mostert’s two runs gained just 4 yards before a pass play was called and Tua Tagovailoa scrambled for 4 yards on third-and-6.
In Week 11, the Dolphins faced Las Vegas. With 3:04 remaining, they received the ball, gained a first down on two Mostert runs, but were forced to punt after two more runs and an incompletion. Despite this, the defense won the game.
With all the injuries up front, especially with Williams now on injured reserve, improving there won’t be simple, but it could be necessary if the Dolphins are to make the kind of progress they hope to in 2023.
And there will always be a but attached to the running game’s great overall stats for this season if they don’t improve in those short-yardage and perhaps game-winning circumstances.
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